blue pearly: it's interesting, at this point there are still people with perfect brackets
blue pearly: but so few
Huntzman85: wow
Huntzman85: I guess it's not much of a stretch
blue pearly: no...
blue pearly: i wonder what the probability is
Huntzman85: low
blue pearly: and then compare the # of people with perfect brackets to what you would expect from a probabilistically perfect group
blue pearly: so see if people are better or worse than chance
Huntzman85: ooh, getting all fancy!
blue pearly: hahaha
blue pearly: I am all about the fancifimication
blue pearly: but i don't have the skillz
Huntzman85: :-(
blue pearly: actually, no, i do
Huntzman85: I blame the tree-hugging College of Arts and Crafts
Huntzman85: BURNNNN
blue pearly: ok
Huntzman85: .....thinking of engineering putdown.......
Huntzman85: ....not coming.....
Huntzman85: .......
Huntzman85: ......
blue pearly: oh wait, though, facebook doesn't provide the number of all people playing
Huntzman85: the number?
blue pearly: the total amount of people
Huntzman85: ooh
Huntzman85: I thought it did?
blue pearly: nope
blue pearly: at least, i don't see it
Huntzman85: hmmm
Huntzman85: you may be right
blue pearly: the probability of having a perfect bracket right now is 2.3^-10
blue pearly: and obviously it gets smaller
Huntzman85: goo
blue pearly: what's your global rank
blue pearly: ?
Huntzman85: 1,037,795
Huntzman85: no bueno :-(
blue pearly: i'm 81,794
Huntzman85: only 12 left with perfect brackets
blue pearly: 1037795 times 2.3^-10 is .0002ish
blue pearly: but i'm sure you're not last :-)
Huntzman85: lol, nope :-D
blue pearly: so there must be way more people...
Huntzman85: yeah
blue pearly: still, unless the number of people playing is REALLY huge, it looks like humans do better than chance
blue pearly: which makes sense
Huntzman85: well you should really compare against a bracket that has all the favorites winning
Huntzman85: because it's not 50-50 in each game
Huntzman85: so the best approx would be P(ij) = i/ (i+j)
Huntzman85: like, a 16 over a 1 would happen 1/17 = 5.9%
blue pearly: hm
blue pearly: but the question was: are people better at deciding who will win than chance? not: are people better at deciding who will win than the selection committtee?
Huntzman85: well of course people are better than chance
No punch line here, this was just an incredibly nerdy yet sporty conversation. :)
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